(Message edb:461)
Date:    Wed, 10 May 2000 13:44:12 PDT
To:      L5RINFO@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM
From:    Edward Bolme <edwardb@FRPG.COM>
Subject: [L5RINFO] Ed on GST Formula [was: News from the chat]

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> > Mouse wrote:
> > > Actually, I can't divulge our system.
>
> To which Dave Salsman replied:
> > It sounds like you and Ed might let your personal feelings
> > effect your attitude.
>
> No, Dave, I don't let my personal feelings, nor Ed's affect how we
> tally the tournament results.

Two points here. One, you fans trust us to run this game as well as we can,
to come up with cool cards, cool art, cool story, cool fan club stuff, cool
everything. Why not trust us on GSTs? I have three decks built for *every*
faction. None of them are my favorite faction. I have favorite decks, and
factions I prefer over others, yes. But if you can guess which clans are my
favorite by the way the story has developed and who has won the GSTs, be my
guest. Certainly The Emperor's Gift would have gone differently if I had had
my way. But all I could do was to play the Crab at our in-house tourney and
cast my vote for the folks I felt deserved it. Sadly, I (and the Crab) did
not win, though I think the Scorpion win made for some cool story, art, and
card work.

Second, there are now five sets of eyes that look at these results. Mindy,
Steve, Dave, Ree, and myself all take a look at those numbers. This
collaborative effort ensures that the numbers are viewed dispassionately. If
we all just used our preferences, each GST would be a
Lion-Crane-Dragon-Naga-[deleted] joint win. Bleah.

Also, as I posted earlier, we vary ratios depending on what we are trying to
simulate and/or measure. If we want to know what clan is most powerful or
the biggest bandwagon, we use one set of numbers. If we want to measure raw
popularity, we use a second set. If we want to mix them and penalize corrupt
decks but not kolat decks, we do it yet a different way.

The troubles arise when people armed with a formula and a portion of the
data use their incomplete knowledge to accuse us of cheating (it has
happened). As it has been said, knowing half of the data is very dangerous
indeed. Thus it is easier for all if the formulae remain secret, then no one
can "prove" that we disregarded the results and get into a flame war.

Remember, even our best GSTs have no more than about 90% of the stores
turning in results. When things are bad, that number drops almost to 50%.
This makes it very easy for fan polls to be based entirely on one set of
stores, while our results may not include any of those stores in them. The
potential for great disparity between the fan poll and the official results
is there, and that's not an area I want to go into.

In short, we have said that the results are in your hands. We have stated
flatly that the aggregate results of these GSTs will determine the fate of
the story. Is there any reason you have not to believe we are being
truthful? Is there a reason to think we do not have your interests at heart?
Is there a reason to think that those of us who love L5R passionately and
have worked on it for years -- especially Mindy, who has been doing this
since almost the game's inception -- would deliberately abandon what we
think of as the cornerstone of L5R's appeal and popularity?

I think not.

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